Why Xi Began His First Trip Since the Pandemic in Kazakhstan

After virtually a few several years of attending global meetings virtually, Chinese President Xi Jinping built his in-person return to the globe phase on Wednesday when he traveled to Kazakhstan.

Apart from a vacation to the semi-autonomous Chinese territory of Hong Kong in July, Xi has not still left mainland China considering the fact that January 2020, when Beijing’s zero-COVID policy saw the nation slam its borders shut. That can make Xi’s travels this 7 days significantly sizeable.

During his trip, Xi will also stop by Uzbekistan to attend a conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional security and trading bloc whose other associates are India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It will be the SCO’s initial in-individual accumulating given that 2019 and Xi is anticipated to acquire the option for a experience-to-face conference with Vladimir Putin—his first due to the fact the Russian chief launched a war versus Ukraine in February.

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But Xi’s to start with cease is Kazakhstan, where by he’ll keep talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Here’s why Kazakhstan issues a fantastic offer to China, and why Xi has made a decision to make Central Asia the concentration of his to start with international sojourn in practically 1,000 times.

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev welcomes President of China Xi Jinping with an official ceremony at Akorda Presidential Palace in Nur Sultan, Kazakhstan on Sept. 14, 2022.

Presidency of Kazakhstan / Handout/Anadolu Agency through Getty Images

Kazakhstan’s strategic worth

Kazakhstan is China’s neighbor to the northwest. The two nations around the world share a lot more than 1,000 miles of border and this will be Xi’s fourth check out. “China and Kazakhstan are good neighbors, great good friends and good companions,” Xi mentioned in a letter published Tuesday in the Kazakhstanskaya Pravda newspaper.

But behind the friendly overtures are challenging geopolitical calculations.

As of 2019, China had all over $14 billion invested in Kazakhstan’s oil and gasoline sectors. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine throwing global energy markets into chaos, Kazakhstan is much more critical than at any time.

The Central Asian state of practically 19 million people today “is a significant supplier of vitality to China, thereby important for Beijing’s power stability strategy,” says Baohui Zhang, a professor of political science at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University.

Kazakhstan also shares a border with Russia and has a major Russian minority, building up about 18{6932ee47e64f4ce8eedbbd5224581f6531cba18a35225771c06e4f1b3f0d9667} of the inhabitants. Some specialists think that Xi could be sending a signal to Moscow that Beijing regards Central Asia as its sphere of influence.

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George Mason College politics professor Mark N. Katz informed Hong Kong’s South China Early morning Article newspaper that “Kazakhstan is understandably anxious that Russia could possibly 1 working day switch its interest to ‘liberating’ the sizeable Russian populace even now living in northern Kazakhstan.”

Katz discussed: “So Xi’s go to to Kazakhstan can be witnessed as a sign that Beijing sees Kazakhstan as a mate and Russia need to not do everything to harm Beijing’s good friend.”

Meanwhile, China’s formidable Belt and Street Initiative (BRI)—a development tactic that back links just about 150 nations around the world in a sprawling method of infrastructure building—was launched by Xi in 2013 through a stop by to Kazakhstan’s funds Astana. Other than its economic benefits, the BRI is witnessed by Beijing as a way of rising its international clout and in particular of practicing “periphery diplomacy” with the lots of international locations alongside its borders.

By China’s possess admission, the BRI has run into a slew of challenges, from unfavorable shifts in the geopolitical climate to the COVID-19 pandemic. Xi’s vacation to Kazakhstan can be noticed as a way of revitalizing the initiative, according to analysts.

“This is all about the ‘renewal of vows’” on the Belt and Road Initiative, states Yun Solar, a senior fellow at the Washington-primarily based Stimson Centre. “The place is exactly where it all started out. That’s why he is heading.”

A Kazakh relatives watch a documentary on China-Kazakhstan economic cooperation at their dwelling in Astana, then called Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, on Oct. 9, 2020.

Kalizhan Ospanov/Xinhua by using Getty

China’s upcoming course

Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University, who is currently a U.S. Fulbright Scholar at Australia’s Griffith College, states that in stepping over and above China’s borders Xi may possibly also be sending a concept that his state will little by little reopen. International travel could resume as COVID-19 abates.

There are periodic indicators that discontent about China’s zero-COVID policies—which have triggered extreme financial problems—is escalating. But Xi might be trying to reveal that he is in agency manage in China, irrespective of these mounting problems. He could also be suggesting that he is confident in his bid for a precedent-breaking 3rd phrase as China’s president, at a important Communist Occasion assembly upcoming thirty day period.

“He can confidently journey abroad now,” states Zhu.

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The SCO convention, following Xi’s Kazakhstan journey, will be of vital importance to Xi’s geopolitical clout. “In the context of the Ukraine war,” says Zhang at Lingnan University, “the SCO summit meeting will make it possible for the leaders of significant non-Western powers to talk about current developments in globe politics and coordinate their policies.”

Amid a tense geopolitical environment, professionals say that Beijing might be trying consolidate assist to counter the West.

“The information to Western powers is that they do not stand for the complete intercontinental neighborhood, and China has a lot of friends in creating international locations and the non-Western globe,” says Zhu.

Popular amongst them is Kazakhstan. “We are friends to have confidence in and partners to count on for each and every other,” wrote Xi in his letter in Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, “and our peoples constantly stand shoulder to shoulder with each other.”

Generate to Amy Gunia at [email protected].